It remains unclear whether Iran’s effort to establish a new equation in the region has truly succeeded — an equation in which, for the first time, Iran would directly strike Israel if Israel attacks Lebanon. What is clear is that recent events suggest the strategic landscape may be shifting. Israel chose to defy President Trump … Read more
The magnitude of what just happened may take some time to sink in. This is the first time Iran has struck Israel after Israel struck another country’s territory (that is, not Iran). This means that the battle lines have been moved. Iran’s deterrence had already been restored in the sense that Israel knew that any … Read more
The emerging deal between the United States and Iran represents an existential danger to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political future. With his coalition fracturing and elections approaching, Netanyahu can’t survive a peace that leaves Hezbollah intact and Iran’s nuclear program deferred. The only path that may keep his future viable now runs through Lebanon. … Read more